If you’ve noticed SSDs and RAM getting pricier lately, buckle up, because according to Phison CEO K.S. Pua, this is just the beginning.In a recent interview, Pua dropped some bombshell predictions about the current state of DRAM and NAND supply chains, and none of it is good news for regular consumers.
In fact, he’s calling it a full-on structural shift in the industry, one that’s going to wipe out businesses left and right.
AI is the villain no one saw coming
Pua didn’t mince words: he described the current situation not as a temporary fluctuation, but as a structural, long-term shortage expected to persist at least until 2030, and potentially a full decade, according to his broader industry outlook.
The culprit? Artificial intelligence. AI demand for memory has exploded so fast that the entire industry is scrambling to keep up, and it’s losing badly.
Here’s where it gets wild: NVIDIA’s upcoming Vera Rubin architecture is a concrete example of the scale of the problem. Each GPU requires over 20TB of SSD storage.
If NVIDIA ships 10 million units, that SSD requirement alone would consume roughly 20% of last year’s global NAND output, and that’s before counting the massive additional storage needed for the data those systems generate.
To make things worse, Phison itself struggled to secure DRAM for expanding its own test servers, with customer fulfillment rates hovering below 30%. Pua described the experience as feeling like a “memory beggar,” repeatedly making the same pleas to suppliers. If a major player like Phison is struggling to get chips, imagine what’s happening to everyone else.
Consumer electronics is heading into a “die-off”
This is where it really hits home. Pua warned that “a large number of consumer electronics companies will fail. From the end of this year to 2026, many system integrators will go bankrupt or exit product lines due to insufficient memory supply.”
The numbers are staggering. Smartphone production is expected to drop by 200–250 million units, and PC and TV production are expected to be significantly reduced. Basic 8GB eMMC chips have already jumped from $1.50 in early 2025 to $20 today, with automotive-grade versions hitting $30.
The reason consumer brands get hit hardest is simple: memory accounts for over 20% of a smartphone’s bill of materials, compared to just 5–6% for servers. Data center operators can simply outbid consumer device makers every single time. It’s not even a fair fight.
Foundries are already demanding three years of prepaid payment for capacity, something that is completely unprecedented in the electronics industry, and the seller’s market has never been stronger. Manufacturers are announcing expansions, sure, but ramp-up takes at least two years, and even that might not be enough to close the gap.
The bottom line: we’re not looking at a temporary chip crunch. This is a fundamental reshaping of who gets memory, who can afford it, and who survives. Smaller OEMs and consumer brands are the most vulnerable, while hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies will keep gobbling up everything available.
What do you think, is this the end of affordable consumer electronics as we know it, or do you think the industry will find a way out? Drop your take in the comments!